Rational Dialog? Nah. Guns Edition

December 9, 2015 9:25 am

It seems that about 40% of the country is convinced that the best possible response to gun violence is for more untrained people to carry around firearms on a regular basis.  Another 40% of the country wants “stronger gun control laws” but what that means depends on who you ask.  And probably about 20% of the country either isn’t sure what the best response is or doesn’t care.

I don’t claim to know what the appropriate response is, but I have some relevant observations.

I’ve known about the ban on using federal research money to study gun violence for a long time.  It’s always been stupid.  If we want to make policy decisions based on anything but emotion then we need data.  Banning federal research money from being used to study one of today’s most prominent policy debates it’s absurd.  This is something everyone should support.  If you think more people having guns will reduce gun deaths then the data gathered in legitimate research should support you.  Maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not, currently we have very little data from which to draw any conclusions.

One accusation from we-need-more-guns advocates is that anyone who wants to modify the process of obtaining firearms is a “Constitution shredder” as if the Constitution is a holy document handed down by God himself.  Here’s a clue for that group: if the Constitution hadn’t been “shredded” in the first place there wouldn’t be a 2nd Amendment to worship.  If the Constitution hadn’t been “shredded” slavery would still be legal and women wouldn’t be allowed to vote.

The Constitution is what “the people” want it to be.  Personally, I’m surprised that given the absolute refusal from the we-need-more-guns groups to enter into rational dialog on how to reduce gun deaths there isn’t more call for simply repealing the 2nd Amendment and ending the “Constitution shredder” argument entirely.

The discussion should be focused on concepts like:

  • What does society gain by allowing easy access to firearms?
  • What does society lose by allowing easy access to firearms?
  • Is that trade-off worth it?
    • Other countries seem to get along just fine without widespread gun ownership.
  • Why does the U.S. seem to uniquely, among industrialized nations, have this problem of gun violence?
  • What might be reasonable restrictions on firearm access?
    • Many, maybe even most or all, Constitutional rights are tempered with reasonable restrictions for the public good.  Saying no restrictions should be applied just makes you look ignorant.
  • Does requiring secure storage of firearms help reduce deaths?
  • Should firearm owners undergo mental health assessments?
  • How about anger management classes?
  • Should safe-handling courses be required for firearm ownership?
  • Would any of these changes substantively alter what society loses by allowing easy access to firearms?
    • Does it change whether the trade-off is worth it?

Is anyone with a loud mouth actually trying to discuss and consider these questions?  Or has the public dialog been entirely reduced to “guns are the problem” — “Nuh-uh, guns are the solution!”?

Scott Adams, Donald Trump, What is Real?

September 9, 2015 11:19 am

Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, has been writing a series of articles discussing Donald Trump and his presidential campaign.  Scott Adams is, so far, the only person I’ve seen who can build a coherent argument about who Donald Trump is, what he’s trying to do, and why it’s working.  That makes me pay attention.

He started with his post on August 13 titled “Clown Genius.”  You should go read it and if Adams’ hypothesis intrigues you then keep looking through his blog posts after that date, he writes a lot about Trump and gives really interesting examples and details of what’s happening and why it’s working.

His most important point thus far, I think, is understanding that Trump is, first and foremost, a businessman.  He literally wrote the book on negotiation.  Anything he says is part of a negotiation.  We find this strange in U.S. politics because negotiation in politics has been dead for 20 years or so.  “Compromise” has become a career killer.  But it’s necessary to be successful in business.

So, Adams says, when Trump presents some extreme position he’s just using it to anchor the negotiation and then he can move to the middle as he sees fit and compromise; just like any negotiation.  You never open with what you actually expect to get–that would simply guarantee that you don’t get it.  Politicians act this way, but they seem to have forgotten the part where you then negotiate to something more reasonable.

Adams believes Trump will easily reposition himself as necessary and that he’ll do it in a way that is immune from people calling him a “flip-flopper.”  That is, he will task underlings with studying the topics and putting together proposals that outline costs, likelihood of success, etc–standard business practice; then when he picks a more moderate position it will be based on analysis of data and facts which is totally reasonable–not flip-flopping.

The overall concept that Adams discusses is the “Master Wizard” hypothesis (so you’ll see that term in his writing).  That is, people like Trump have studied and learned the art of getting what they want.  Call it persuasion or manipulation or whatever but the result is the same.  They get people to agree with them and then give them what they want.  He suggests another  Master Wizard you might recognize: Steve Jobs.  By all objective accounts he was a jerk with no technical skill.  Yet he was absurdly successful running a computer company.  He got people to do things for him, no question about it.

Here’s one example Adams calls out: Trump was getting a lot of press recently for calling Ben Carson a “nice guy.”  It’s an interesting phrase to use and he carefully ends his statement with it so it’s left hanging.  What do many people mentally fill in when you drop the phrase “nice guy(s)” and then leave it hanging?  “Finish last.”  Adams argues that Trump fired this “linguistic bullet” to end Carson’s campaign.  In his opinion, millions of people now believe Carson has no chance of winning because he’s too nice, but they don’t realize why they think that.  That is how wizards operate.

The thing that’s scary to me is that the more I read Adams’ thoughts on the subject the more is seems like Trump isn’t necessarily a bad candidate.  Someone who actually negotiates would be good for the country, we need to bring compromise back in to politics.  But then another part of my brain just says, “Buuuut….he’s Donald Trump….seriously?”

Adams believes Trump will win the Republican nomination and then win the general election.  I don’t know if that will happen, but Adams has convinced me that I should definitely pay more attention to the details of how Trump is operating and that there is more there than meets the eye.

Decisions are made by those who show up

June 16, 2015 10:30 am

The article “Inside Obama’s Stealth Startup” was published yesterday over at fastcompany.com.  It discusses the U.S. Digital Service as well as 18F and the effort to bring government tech into the 21st century.  When these stories post I oftentimes take a look at the comment threads on common tech watering holes like Slashdot and HackerNews.  Generally speaking, Slashdot comment threads are rather cynical while HackerNews tends to be more optimistic, but overall it provides some kind of view into how the greater tech world is responding.  So I was surprised at the amount of cynicism expressed in the comments on HackerNews on this article.

Now, I tend to be fairly cynical, the only negative remark on my annual performance appraisals has always been that I should try to be less cynical.  (Personally, I think my cynicism has helped make our team successful, but I digress…) While I may be somewhat cynical, I’m also on the inside of government work.  I know my team members and their skills.  I know the mission space my software is used in.  And I know my background and motivations.

I understand feeling that nothing in government could really be improved so this whole thing must be nothing more than a PR campaign.  It’s not.  This is possibly the first genuine attempt at meaningfully improving government tech services ever.  And there are more people pushing for it than just those in the U.S.D.S. or 18F.

I’m reminded of a quote from The West Wing: “Decisions are made by those who show up.”

The government isn’t just another corporation out to make a profit.  It is the thing which makes our country more than some lines on a map.  If it’s not working the way you want it to then you have two choices: whine and complain on the Internet about how broken it is or show up and do something about it.

torbakhopper via Flickr - Creative Commons Licensed
torbakhopper via Flickr – Creative Commons Licensed

The government is likely to continue to exist for some time to come*.  If we’re not trying to make it better then it’s not going to get better.  If you know me well you know I am not Mr. Patriotic, and in fact I find patriotism dangerous as it is often used to stifle dissent.  This isn’t about being patriotic or that somehow the U.S. is better than other countries.  This is about the U.S. government being our government.  And it was created upon the idea that the citizens should have some say in how their government operates.

For years technology in government has fallen behind due to thousands of qualified techies deciding they would rather chase piles of money by selling ads and shiny, metal gadgets than trying to make the government better.  And I get that it’s not just about the money. Fighting bureaucracy is hard and exhausting.

But if we don’t fight it then it’s only going to get worse.  And we can change it.  I have changed my small corner of it.

When I started in my job 6 years ago the source code for this group was stored in an ancient deployment of SVN, the applications were built on homegrown J2EE frameworks with no documentation, missing source code, years behind industry best practices, and with release cycles measured in months.  The code was like spaghetti, it barely functioned, and the intended users hated it.  They disliked it so much that they continued throwing their data into Excel to avoid using the custom software which was supposed to be more useful than Excel.  There was no reason for it but culture and lack of energy to fight for change.

When I joined, the existing software group had disbanded.  I still haven’t gotten a full story about what happened, but on my first day on the job the “team” consisted of myself, a database administrator, and a team manager.  Seeing the catastrophe of code that was in front of me I pushed on the manager to let me build a prototype using a modern framework (what did we have to lose, after all?).  It was a smash success and that prototype grew to become one of our core applications.

Now, with the help of willing managers and with our tiny team of software developers (just me, then 2, then 4, now ~7) we’ve made massive changes.  We use Git for our version control, we build our applications on popular open-source frameworks and libraries, we follow industry best practices as much as possible, our release cycles are measured in weeks and sometimes days.  Our users love the software and constantly ask for more advanced tools.  Our management estimates our technology environment to be at least a year ahead of any other organization in our mission space, we have saved the government millions of dollars, and we have saved lives.

Fighting the bureaucracy is hard.  Some days you think it would just be easier to give in.  It would be easier to give in.  But then nothing gets better.

We have enough work to keep a team twice our size busy but we can’t find qualified people to fill the positions.  If the qualified people choose money over service then government technology will continue to suffer.

Our government is what we make of it and the decisions are made by those who show up.

So show up.

“Discomfort” or Torture?

December 9, 2014 7:55 pm

Former Deputy CIA Director John McLaughlin tells NPR, “We may have made a few terrorists uncomfortable for a short period of time in order to get information that we felt was essential to protecting the United States.”

By which he means:

In November 2002, a detainee died from hypothermia after he was held “partially nude and chained to a concrete floor.”

Some detainees were kept awake for up to 180 hours, “usually standing or in painful stress positions, at times with their hands shackled above their heads.”

Some naked detainees were “hooded and dragged up and down corridors while being slapped and punched.”

“At least five CIA detainees were subjected to ‘rectal feeding’ or ‘rectal hydration’ without documented medical need.”

Detainees were kept in total darkness and shackled in isolated cells, bombarded with loud noise and given only a bucket in which to relieve themselves.

The CIA may have waterboarded more than the three detainees it said it waterboarded.

…chained to the ceiling, clothed in a diaper, and forced to go to the bathroom on himself.

Multiple CIA detainees subjected to the techniques suffered from hallucinations, paranoia, insomnia and tried to mutilate themselves.

…became completely unresponsive after a period of intense waterboarding.

At least 26 were held “wrongfully,” partly because there was no information to justify their detention.

The waterboarding technique was physically harmful, inducing convulsions and vomiting.

Detainees were often held down, naked, on a tarp on the floor, with the tarp pulled up around them to form a makeshift tub, while cold or refrigerated water was poured on them.

Others were hosed down repeatedly while they were shackled naked, in the standing sleep deprivation position.

…the CIA instructed personnel that the interrogation of Abu Zubaydah would take “precedence” over his medical care.

CIA officers also threatened at least three detainees with harm to their families—to include threats to harm the children of a detainee, threats to sexually abuse the mother of a detainee, and a threat to “cut [a detainee’s] mother’s throat.”

Quotes from NPR, CNN, and SF Chronicle articles; and from the document itself.

And it goes on and on and on and on….

Is this what you consider acceptable treatment of prisoners?  Would we ever accept this if done to U.S. military personnel?  Is this simply making them uncomfortable?  How could anyone read those descriptions and say all we did was, “made a few terrorists uncomfortable.”?

Torture – Not In My Name

4:06 pm

Having just finished my graduate course on terrorism the release of the summary of the report regarding the CIA’s interrogation activities is particularly interesting to me.  [NPR coverage here.]

A lot of words have been written about whether the treatment of prisoners was “technically torture.”  First, I think it should be seen as a clear sign that you’re doing something wrong when you have to spend that much energy arguing over whether something is technically torture or not.  If the best you can do to defend your actions is to say “it wasn’t ‘technically’ torture, so it was okay” then you’re doing something wrong.

Second, instead of spending pages and pages (as the Department of Justice did) analyzing the legal definition of torture and whether you’ve violated it; let’s use a much easier route.  Sample the population and describe the actions as having been committed against U.S. civilians captured by, let’s say, North Korea.  If we consider it torture for North Korea to do that to our citizens then it’s torture for us to do it to anybody else.

The argument then usually falls back to, “well, so what if it was torture, we needed the intel it resulted in.”  Despite this being a highly disputed claim (especially within the new report) it’s irrelevant.  Torture is wrong.  Efficacy does not matter.  Why?  Why is torture wrong?  The simplest argument is that it’s wrong for the same reason that capital punishment is wrong.  At some point you’re going to do it to someone who is completely innocent and there’s no taking it back.  But it’s wrong beyond that.  It’d be wrong even if you absolutely knew without any doubt whatsoever that the victim was guilty.  Despite the copious quantities of evidence that torture probably doesn’t work, results in backlash, alienates allies, and radicalizes enemies we need no data points here.  This is moral conviction.  Treating another conscious, living thing that way is wrong.

The only thing I find more disgusting than the fact that these actions were carried out in our names is that no one will be held accountable for it.  No one has been or ever will be charged with violating human rights or international conventions.  They did these disgusting things and told the world they did it for us.  Your name, my name, my daughter’s name, our flag, our country have been slapped on the use of torture claiming “We Approve!”

I do not approve.

It was wrong.

We as a country need to change.  We need to apologize to the victims and their families.  Yes, even though the prisoners most likely were awful people, what we did was unacceptable.  The idea that the victim was a bad person does not excuse mistreating them.  We need to do something to ensure it doesn’t happen again.  We need to show why the United States is better than a terrorist organization, not stoop to their level.  If we’re going to claim to stand for freedom and justice then we need to actually practice what we preach.

We need to be better.