COVID-19: Part 41

July 28, 2020 10:56 am
  • Quarantine Day 134
  • Livermore cases: 443
  • Alameda County cases: 10,259; deaths: 178
  • U.S. cases: 4,280,000+; deaths: 147,000+

"Right now we are experiencing a national forest fire of COVID that is readily consuming any human wood that's available to burn," says
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Now, Nuzzo doesn't think all hope is lost. If enough people finally start wearing masks, and get vigilant about staying at least 6 feet away from other people, especially indoors, there may still be hope in at least some places of avoiding new shutdowns, she says.

Meanwhile our neighbors hosted a street party over the weekend with about 20 people attending. They were, at least, outside; but I saw no masks and no appropriate distancing. I truly do not get it.

And places that didn't learn from NYC are now becoming NYC. Like NYC had to do, counties across the country are now loading up refrigerator trucks with bodies because they've run out of space in morgues and funeral homes.

"Unfortunately, Starr County Memorial Hospital has limited resources and our doctors are going to have to decide who receives treatment, and who is sent home to die by their loved ones," Starr County Judge Eloy Vera wrote on the county's Facebook page on Thursday morning. "This is what we did not want our community to experience. … We must be responsible for ourselves and our loved ones."

Based on this data, of counties reporting, Florida has 18 counties with ICUs at or above 90% capacity.

The eight counties making up California's Central Valley have pushed their hospitals to the edge and response teams and resources from state and federal governments are being sent in to help.

So many news sources are reporting so many ICUs reaching critical capacity, but I have yet to find any single source providing aggregate data across counties.

It is just so frustratingly stupid that we're in this position. We KNEW this would happen when we watched it happen in NYC in April! We've had 3 MONTHS to come up with a real plan to prevent it. But we have a president who claimed it wasn't real for months and months. We have governors who refused to take it seriously. We have citizens who proudly refuse to wear a mask; patting themselves on the back for "standing up to tyranny."

They think masks are tyranny, meanwhile this is happening in other parts of the country:

The red jumpsuits are prison guards. Federal prison guards working with other militarized forces to subdue protests about police brutality on American streets.

But temporarily wearing a piece of cloth over your mouth and nose is oppression.


COVID-19: Part 40

July 24, 2020 6:51 pm
  • Quarantine Day 130
  • Livermore cases: 427
  • Alameda County cases: 9,864; deaths: 175
  • U.S. cases: 4,024,000+; deaths: 143,000+

I filled up the Civic with gas on Thursday. The first time since March 5. In almost 5 months I drove only 250 miles.

Updated modeling this week looks terrible for states that still aren't taking this seriously. California is expected to hit a new peak of daily deaths at ~130/day in a couple of weeks, which is about 0.3 deaths per 100,000 people. Arizona is projected to hit ~75/day (1.0 deaths per 100,000 people) about the same time. Florida: ~150/day (0.7 deaths per 100,000 people). Texas is predicted to monotonically increase into November with a brief plateau at ~240/day (0.8 deaths per 100,000 people).

The U.S. overall is seeing over 1,100 deaths a day. Trump finally even held a press conference and suggested people should wear masks. But he's still threatening to withhold federal funding if states don't reopen schools in person.

And things are about to get catastrophically worse for millions of people. Extended unemployment benefits and eviction moratoriums are expiring at the end of July. Congress doesn't appear to be even close to addressing the issue. The House (meaning Democrats) passed a $3.2 trillion aid package back in May. The Senate is going nowhere. Republicans can't even figure out amongst themselves what they want to do, much less negotiate with Democrats to pass something.

This is with 18 straight weeks of over 1 million first-time unemployment claims being filed weekly.


The girls started swim classes again a couple of weeks ago. They each have 2 kids in their class and the instructors wear face shields. In between classes the whole facility gets sanitized. I'm not entirely sure if technically they're supposed to be open at the moment, but they seem to be trying really hard to do things safely.


The Oakland Zoo got permission to reopen. They also received a $500,000 donation to help cover their operating costs.

Alameda County issued updated shelter-at-home regulations at the beginning of the week. I read through them but I didn't see any obvious differences from the previous rules.


Because of state rules, Livermore schools will open as online only for the beginning of the school year. Heather's new desk has arrived. She's working on cleaning her room and making space for it before we assemble it. The Chromebook I ordered for her to use should arrive next week. So I guess we're pretty much as ready as we're going to be.


I went on site to my office on Tuesday and Thursday this week. I'll be back a few more times over the next few weeks trying to get some deliverables completed on the air-gapped networks. I usually see and interact with no one except the guard at the gate. Which is fine by me.


Oh yah, some other things. Trump bragged about passing a dementia test. Also, unidentified federal officers in military gear have been in Portland, OR beating, gassing, and shooting with rubber bullets protesters. They've also been arresting people by just grabbing them off the street and stuffing them into unmarked vehicles and driving away with them.

The Department of Homeland security eventually admitted they were from Customs and Border Patrol. The administration has vowed to continue to send in these teoop


July 23, 2020 7:40 pm

Comet NEOWISE is making its closest approach to Earth today. Last night I drove up into the hills southeast of Livermore to try and get a look. Visibility was apparently better earlier in the month when the comet was closer to the Sun, but it was also only visible just before sunrise and that just wasn't going to happen.

I used online maps to scout out what I thought would be a good vantage point and I drove out just after sunset. I got to the dirt road and across the cattle guard then I had to wait for the cattle to get off the road. Once they moseyed on their way I climbed up the hills until I had a pretty good view over Livermore. Then I got my camera set up and played around with the moon while I waited for it to get darker.

Dusk over Livermore

I still couldn't see the comet with my eyes and it looked like the main problem was light pollution. But I figured I could use my camera to find it. So I pointed it in the general direction, zoomed out to 50mm, and took a 20-second exposure. I did that a few times before I found it. Here's the first shot I got with the comet in it straight off the camera:

It's right near the bottom, about a third of the way from the right. So I carefully adjusted the tripod to center the comet and then zoomed in to 200mm. The light pollution made it really hard to pull out the details of the comet. Here are my best two shots:

Comet NEOWISE. Pentax K-7, 200mm, 6400 ISO, f/5.6, 6s
Comet NEOWISE. Pentax K-7, 200mm, 6400 ISO, f/5.6, 5s

Then the moon was setting and became a tiny sliver of deep red:

And since I was already out there I turned my camera around away from town and go the stars behind a utility pole:

The K-7 struggles in low-light conditions. It's 11 years old and sensor technology has improved dramatically in that time. I'm planning on upgrading in the near future. Pentax is releasing a new APS-C flagship later this year which I'm keeping an eye on. If reviews are positive I'll probably pick one up. It should be a considerable leap in image quality, auto focusing, and low-light performance.

COVID-19: Part 39

July 17, 2020 3:12 pm
  • Quarantine Day 123
  • Livermore cases: 349
  • Alameda County cases: 8,556; deaths: 160
  • U.S. cases: 3,555,000+; deaths: 137,000+

A triple quarantine. Ugh.

The school system sent out a notice that school will be either fully remote or as a hybrid model with limited on-campus time each week in smaller groups with the option to dynamically switch between modes depending on conditions. Given the data trends, I'm expecting things will start fully remote at this point, unless things really turn around in the next four weeks.

So Jess ordered a desk and chair we can put in Heather's room under her loft-bed so she has a dedicated school-work station. I'm setting up deal alerts on Chromebooks so we have a dedicated computer available for her (the school system has Chromebooks available, but I'm guessing we can get something better and also ease the demand on their supply for others who can't afford to just go buy one right now). I'm expecting we'll see a run on Chromebooks as the school year approaches (since many district use them) so I'm hoping to grab one before that happens.

How remote Kindergarten will work for Corinne is a mystery. She really needs the hands-on, in-person experience. So it's sad she won't get to have that. But we are fully in support of following the best available medical advice on how to do schooling safely.


I interviewed for a "Group Leader" position at the Lab today. It's basically the bottom rung of the management ladder. It's only funded at 5% so you still do a regular technical job 95% of the time. Mostly it's handling performance appraisals and career development type activities for a group of 10-20 people.


Last night my friends played the Gambler's Pass adventure in our campaign. One of them used a flying spell to fly across the Red River and avoid falling in when the bridge was destroyed. So that was unexpected. I'll have to do a little re-writing for the next adventure to account for that.


More and more states are enacting mandatory mask regulations. But then you have Georgia whose governor passed an executive order banning mask mandates in the state that had been enacted at the city level.


I finally got my hands on "Ring Fit Adventure" a fitness game for the Nintendo Switch. They've been completely sold out since March and any time they are in stock they sell out again within minutes.

We've all been playing that this week (except Corinne who isn't strong enough to squeeze or stretch the resistance band). It's pretty fun.

It's a great evolution on the Wii Fit concept. In Wii Fit they created a bunch of minigames where you exercise to play the games. But they had no overarching narrative so it was interesting but you still had to have the base motivation to do exercise since the minigames lost their novelty fairly quickly.

In Ring Fit Adventure they built the overarching narrative and exercise is the medium of fighting enemies and advancing the story. So while the actual exercise is still repetitive (repetition is rather the point) there is a developing story line and your character's strength and abilities level up so it's much more engaging.

Consequently we've all had sore muscles all week.

COVID-19: Part 38

July 13, 2020 4:02 pm
  • Quarantine day 119
  • Livermore cases: 282
  • Alameda County cases: 7,711; deaths: 147
  • U.S. cases: 3,296,000+; deaths: 134,000+

Yesterday, Alameda County was added to the state's "Monitoring List." Which indicates a county which is struggling to contain the pandemic. Counties on the list for 3 consecutive days become subject to additional restrictions from the state. However, the current state restrictions are things that haven't re-opened in Alameda County yet anyway, so it probably won't make much difference.

Today, California issued a new public health order locking things back down statewide and placing additional restrictions on counties on the Monitoring List.

Statewide, indoor food and entertainment activities are prohibited (e.g., restaurants, movie theaters, bars, wineries, museums). For the counties on the Monitoring List the prohibitions include gyms, religious centers, hair salons, malls, and non-essential offices. 31 of California's 58 counties are on the Monitoring List (29 for 3+ days).

So we're reverting back to April/May levels of restrictions. [sigh]


Last week we put a deposit on a solar + battery system for the house. It will be months before any construction happens, but that puts us on the wait-list.

We also locked in a mortgage refinance at 2.75% which will save us about $40,000 over the life of the loan.


I forgot to mention in my last post that Ivy and Beryl had completed their trek through the Forgotten Lands (and battled a Sand Worm on the way). They've finally arrived back in Bree and were celebrated at the banquet. We only held the prologue of the next quest and I think I'm going to roll it back and redo it. I was exhausted and I'm not happy with the episode; it feels too arbitrary.

I bought a new game last week called "Above and Below" because I saw it on SlickDeals and it looked interesting. Jess and I played it to figure out how it works and then we played with Heather (and Corinne, sort of). Its endgame needs some focus. I have some ideas to modify the rules to make the gameplay a little tighter at the end. As it is, you're playing along and then it just ends and you count up points to see who won. It doesn't feel very purposeful.