COVID-19: Part 48

November 13, 2020 3:12 pm
  • Quarantine Day 242
  • Livermore cases: 1,110
  • Alameda Count cases: 24,732; deaths: 479
  • U.S. cases: 10,508,000+; deaths: 242,000+

California, overall, is doing really well right now. Almost like several months of actual leadership with clear plans and requirements is worth something. Looking at the CDC metric of “cases in the past 7 days per 100k” puts California at 12th in the nation at 17 (out of 60 jurisdictions reported). The other end of that chart is North Dakota at 169, South Dakota at 155, and Iowa at 135. The nationwide rate is 41.

Skipping the weekends (which always have lower deaths reported due to reporting mechanisms) we’ve been hitting over 1,000 deaths per day across the country for almost two weeks now–trending upwards.

Case rates are ticking up here too. Exactly as the medical professionals tried to warn everyone–with colder weather the virus is surging.

Alameda County issued recommendations on holiday gatherings this week (which overall is, “please don’t, but we know you’ll ignore that, so please do these things instead”). I liked this section:

Avoid singing, chanting, and shouting. If you cannot avoid these activities, keep your face covering on, your volume low, and at least a 6-foot distance from others. More distance and being outdoors are safer.

I’m amused by the idea of being unable to avoid a situation involving singing, chanting, or shouting.

It started getting colder around here a few weeks ago which was when we discovered our heat didn’t work. The furnace’s control board needed to be replaced as it was no longer sending power to the gas regulator. I ordered the new control board (a non-identical model that superseded about a dozen old models) and spent an evening replacing it myself which went well. Not too bad if you have enough room to put the new board next to the old board and then one-by-one check the label where each wire is connected and match it up on the new board. So that was a nice way to save a few hundred dollars.

Last week we finally got our kitchen lights replaced (just a short 7 or 8 months we’ve been without lighting in the kitchen). I don’t have any pictures yet because I still have work to do painting the ceiling. We also had two new ceiling fans installed. And six days later I broke one of them by swinging the comforter on our bed up to put it on and it caught the edge of a blade and snapped it off. So that was awesome. The manufacturer is taking pity on me and is sending replacement blades.

Our solar install is finally progressing as well. The service panel was replaced this week in order to get a panel with a larger bus bar that can carry the load of batteries, solar, and (at some future point in time) an electric vehicle charger. Our solar installation date is now supposed to be Dec 17. So just in time for the solstice and the least amount of sun all year.

Halloween 2020

November 10, 2020 8:00 pm

Halloween was on Saturday this year, which was a good thing because we didn’t get around to carving our Pumpkins until the day of. Heather designed a pumpkin to represent the flag of the Fur and Freedom Fighters (a group from the book series she’s been reading, “Redwall”), which is a spear breaking a chain. Corinne’s design is a goofy face, and my design is the Sheikah Slate symbol from the Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild video game.

As usual, I did all the pumpkin work myself because everyone else thinks it’s gross.

Corinne insisted on being in some of the pumpkin pictures and dragged Jess in too:

The girls wanted to be Elsa and Anna from Frozen 2 this year.

We didn’t participate in trick-or-treating this year due to the ongoing pandemic. But instead, we got together with our social-bubble buddies. I made a Halloween trifle of brownies, chocolate cream, orange-dyed Cool Whip, crumbled Oreos, gummy eyeballs, gummy worms, and Reese’s Pieces. If you ate around the gummy things (which were really only there for ambiance) it was quite good.

We did leave a bowl of lollipops out on our front step when we left, but it was basically untouched, so it would seem most of the neighborhood was also skipping the trick-or-treating. Which is good. Our county’s numbers have been steadily improving for the last couple of months while much of the country has been experiencing full-blown outbreaks that are threatening to overwhelm hospitals.

The kids ran around and played until they were exhausted. And that was Halloween this year. Hopefully next year things will be back to normal.

Heather’s Birthday 2020

7:41 pm

With Heather’s birthday we’ve now celebrated the entire family’s birthdays for 2020 in quarantine.

Her birthday was a work & school day. Much of the day was spent trying to get Heather to complete her school work so we could move on to fun activities. We eventually got on with things and the requisite treasure hunt was a big hit. This year’s hunt involved playing a custom-coded guessing game on the computer, decoding a message encrypted using a substitution cipher, some math word problems, and completing some electronic circuitry.

Birthday dinner was McDonald’s cheeseburgers (because what could be better than that?). Then she opened presents before having cake. Corinne thought up and picked out a Toothless stuffed animal (the dragon from “How to Train your Dragon”) to give her and Heather is enamored of it. She puts one of her old nightgowns on it at night to keep it warm and it travels with her throughout the house during the day.

This year’s cake was a white cake with vanilla-cream filling, chocolate frosting, and decorated with Andes mints. Unfortunately, like last year, she wasn’t particularly thrilled with it. So she’ll have to pick another new cake next year.

While we were eating cake she seemed a bit down. After some probing she admitted to having been a bit let down by her gifts. She liked them all, but was hoping for some Je-ne-sais-quoi delight that didn’t materialize. And I know the feeling. I’ve had that experience too. It’s not that there’s some particular thing that you’re hoping for (otherwise you could say so and increase your chances). You’re just hoping for some unexpected surprise and it doesn’t always happen (nor is it always specifically hoped for either). Some language probably has a word for it.

We’ll see if we can land a hit at Christmas. I spent some time looking for ideas and think I found something that will fit the bill.

COVID-19: Part 47

October 14, 2020 7:05 pm
  • Quarantine Day 212
  • Livermore cases: 968
  • Alameda Count cases: 21,597; deaths: 433
  • U.S. cases: 7,835,000+; deaths: 215,000+

This post is just to celebrate Alameda County moving from red to orange on the State’s reopening plan (purple, red, orange, yellow)! I’m pessimistic that we’re going to see a reversal in that trend as we go through Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years. But at least for the moment we’re continuing to move in the right direction (even while large swaths of the country are moving the wrong direction).

CA Proposition 16 – Fairness

October 10, 2020 2:10 pm

Before we start I want to make clear the effort I put into considering the concept of “fairness.” I’ve academically studied cooperative decision-making of multi-agent systems. Over the past year I read John Rawls’ political treatise “Justice as Fairness.” I’ve been working my way through T. M. Scanlon’s “What we Owe to each Other.” Along with many other works considering cooperation vs competition, human social structures, sociology, and psychology.

I’m interested not just in providing fairness, but understanding what “fair” is. I’m not saying I’m an expert, but that if you disagree with me at least consider that I have given the matter serious thought and that I’m probably not just a blithering idiot.

Recently I read “The Penguin and the Leviathan” by Yochai Benkler. The overall theme is how cooperative social structures survive and thrive in human society. But the specific thing I want to discuss here is from chapter 6: “Equal Halves: Fairness in Cooperation.”

I couldn’t start the conversation any better than this excerpt:

In looking through the experimental economics and social psychology literature, it seems that when we care about “fairness” we really care about three distinct things: fairness of outcomes, fairness of intentions, and fairness of processes. With regard to outcomes, we care about how much each of us gets out of an interaction relative to others, given the generally understood norms. For intentions, we particularly care when the outcomes are not “fair” given generally understood conventions for the situation, whether the unfair outcome was intentionally brought about or not. And as for processes, we care whether the way in which the outcome was achieved was fair or not, whatever the outcome and the intentions of the people involved.

Benkler goes on to describe the research data that attempts to tease out how people apply different concepts of fairness based on situational concerns, cultural backgrounds, and other individualized factors.

I found this chapter interesting because it brought clarity to discussions I’ve had with people in the past when we were both talking about what would be “fair” but seemed to come to completely different conclusions given the same data. I realize that for myself I innately interpret “fairness” to mean “fairness of processes.” I say “innately” because it seems so obvious to me that this should be what “fairness” is that it’s hard to see any argument against it.

Fairness of processes. Regardless of who you are, where you came from, the color of your skin, the manner of your speech, or how much money you have; under the same circumstances you should receive the same treatment. Is this not the embodiment of “We hold these truths to be self evident, that all men are created equal…”? Surely this is the standard for which we should strive in the systems and structures we design and implement in the world around us.

Seeing a discussion of the academic research makes it clear that, no, many people don’t see it that way. And this is where things rapidly become messy.

So what does this have to do with Proposition 16?

Proposition 16 proposes to remove the following section (and some related text) from the California Constitution:

The State shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting.

In my eyes this entirely hinges around interpreting “fairness” to mean “fairness of processes,” “fairness of outcomes,” or “fairness of intentions.” I see that section of the constitution to be a huge win for “fairness of processes.” Of course the state shouldn’t get to discriminate based on those concepts. However, opponents instead see that language as an impediment to “fairness of outcomes” in which they want to subvert “fairness of processes” to attempt to correct for unfairness in origin. I’m not sure how a “fairness of intentions” would interpret the proposition. Perhaps either way, seeing that the intentions behind keeping the text and removing the text are both to create fairness in treatment for citizens of California in which there may be adverse outcomes for some members of the population.

The repeal-this-section outlook seems to suggest that if a racer starts further away from the finish line we should make part of their lane a moving sidewalk to help them catch up. Whether one interprets such actions as producing a contest that’s more “fair” is in the eye of the beholder (setting aside whether it would make the race more interesting to watch).

My goal isn’t to create an argument about affirmative action, but to try to provide a light on why this discussion is so difficult to have in the first place: What people mean by “fair” can be fundamentally different.

Personally I see removing that language from the constitution to be a bad thing. It undermines “fairness of process” which is how I view fairness as a baseline. I think impinging on “fairness of process” in an attempt to improve “fairness of outcome” is fraught with dangers. One of which will be alienating those people that see “fair” as “fairness of processes;” another being that when the process is known to not be fair then it incentivizes people to misrepresent themselves in order to obtain the more favorable treatment.

An example of people misrepresenting themselves to take advantage of an “unfair process” happened in Disney parks. Disney would allow groups that included visitors with disabilities to skip long lines for attractions. Though implemented with the best of intentions, unscrupulous visitors began taking advantage of this “unfairness of process” by hiring disabled persons to guide them around the parks skipping lines for their own personal convenience at the expense of everyone waiting patiently in line.

I give this example not to say that Disney shouldn’t have this accommodation (though in response to the opportunists I believe they changed the accommodation to only allow the disabled guest and a buddy to skip the lines). My point is that when you intentionally design “unfairness of processes” people will take advantage to set themselves even further ahead and you have to be able to address that or risk further alienating those who are not advantaged by the system.

I don’t have any grand answer to these issues. Which is why I fall back on “fairness of processes” because I think that in many situations the ability to define admissible metrics and clearly manage all the confounding variables in order to “fairly” subvert “fairness of processes” with the goal of improving “fairness of outcomes” is intractable and it’s simpler to implement fair processes and then attempt to deal with the inherent unfairnesses of life in programs run outside the official processes of government.

A final thought on the matter is that one should consider what happens if people who might act contrary to your goals were in charge with your rules. Were the government run by a group that was actively racist or sexist or some other manner of discrimination, would you feel more comfortable with this clause being in the constitution or it being removed? I’d certainly sleep better knowing that malevolence could be contained by constituional protections.