Is This the Country We Live in?

November 23, 2016 11:18 am

I'll be honest.  I thought that the United States had made a lot of progress in the last 5o years.  Apparently I was misinterpreting improving public dialog for genuine improvement of society.  Instead, for some large swath of the country, it was just a mask they felt obliged to wear while they privately stewed in a fantasy world of fear of people different from themselves.

I honestly didn't realize how mainstream the peddling of ignorance and fear had become.  I guess that probably mostly comes from not consuming news programs supported by ad revenue.

This American Life ran two episodes in October that were rather eye-opening.  The first was "Seriously?" in which they explore how people have become convinced that interpretation is the same as fact.  And in "Will I Know Anyone at This Party?" they explore the anti-Islamic movement that seems to have taken over the Republican Party.

In the latter episode a reporter looks into the anti-Islamic movement specifically in Minnesota.  I was honestly dumbfounded by the fever-pitched fear-of-others being fueled by ignorance.  I also learned about and gained a respect for Congressman Tom Emmer.  I greatly disagree with him on a good many topics, but I was impressed by his push-back during a town-hall meeting he hosted with his constituents:

Sue: You're our only chance.
Tom Emmer: For what, Sue? What is it that you want?
Sue: OK,
Tom Emmer: What is it that want from me?
Sue: I think I speak for a lot of people. I think the city of St. Cloud needs a breather. And we need to assimilate with the people that are--
Tom Emmer: What does that mean? What does that mean?
Sue: It's a break on the influx for a period of time, so we could take a little breather.
Tom Emmer: Here's the thing, your last statement, though, "take a little breather."
[SCATTERED APPLAUSE]
Tom Emmer: You guys, could you just hold on. Say it out loud. Are you suggesting that no more immigrants should be allowed to come to St. Cloud?
Sue: A moratorium for a short time.
Woman: For the whole United States!
Man: The whole United States, yes.
Tom Emmer: All right. All right, here's the thing. All I can do is respond as open and honest as I can, Sue. That's not something that I can do. That's not something that our constitution says that we do with people who are--

Earlier he said this in response to the same sentiment:

I'm going to say it out loud-- when you move to a community, as long as you are here legally, I am very sorry but you don't get to slam the gate behind you and tell nobody else that they're welcome. That's not the way this country works.

His constituents are telling him they want him to stop immigrants from moving to their city (and the whole country).  And he flat out tells them that's not an option.  And they were not happy about it.  I think that must take real guts as a politician who, presumably, wants to get reelected by these same people.  Good for him.

Later on in the program the reporter, Zoe Chase, goes to South Dakota to witness a meeting by, essentially, an anti-Islamic evangelist.  He's not a preacher of religion, but he has a donation basket and spends his time traveling around telling people how Islam is destroying America.

After the meeting Chase spoke to a state representative who attended:

In this hotel ballroom in Aberdeen, South Dakota, people aren't interested in a debate over the economics of immigration. This is a conversation about fear. The most memorable conversation I had was with this state rep Al Novstrup. He's been in state government for 14 years, and he came to this meeting to get more information on Sharia law potentially taking over his city. Like it has other places, he says.

Zoe Chase: Like where?
Al Novstrup: Dearborn, Michigan?
Zoe Chace: Have you seen that happen there?
Al Novstrup: I haven't been to Dearborn, Michigan.
Zoe Chace: From my perspective, as a national reporter, there's still the Constitution. There's no Sharia anywhere.
Al Novstrup: You don't think there's Sharia anywhere in the United States?
Zoe Chace: Correct.
Al Novstrup: I think you need to read more.
Zoe Chace: I do read.
Al Novstrup: You don't think there's Sharia any place in the United States? You don't think-- wow. OK. You don't think there's Sharia? I'm just blown away. We're living on two different planets.

And clearly Representative Novstrup has one thing right: we're living on two different planets.  The planet he lives on is a fantasy world of fear fueled by confirmation bias and willful ignorance.

When I hear people freaking out about Sharia Law being practiced in the United States I used to assume they meant something like how orthodox Jews live by Jewish Law or Mormons might subject themselves to disciplinary action from their church because they want to.  Which, by that measure, I'd be surprised if Sharia law isn't being practiced within the United States.  That's sort of a foundational principle of freedom of religion.  People can choose to voluntarily live by a stricter code of conduct than the legal code prescribes.  Not really something worth freaking out about, but people choose to be afraid of things they don't understand.

But apparently that's not what is meant by many of the people freaking out.  They seem to be of the opinion that the legal code in some parts of the country is now literally Sharia Law.  That whether you're a follower of Islam or not you'll be arrested and charged based on Islamic legal codes.  If so, that would be completely inappropriate, but also really, really easy to prove.  But they can't prove it, because it isn't happening.  But that fact is irrelevant.  They apparently want to live in fear and so facts can't permeate their barrier of intentional ignorance.

Perhaps people of this mindset are simply unaware of concepts like confirmation bias, frequency illusion (sometimes called the Baader-Meinhof effect), declinism, framing effect, illusory truth effect, or a dozen other well studied cognitive biases that cause our perception of the world to be out of sync with reality.  Everyone is susceptible to these problems.  The best we can do is recognize they happen and attempt to acquire actual data through well-examined methodologies to get past our own psychology.

Perhaps our greatest challenge as a society right now is that technology has perpetuated and encouraged all of these cognitive biases rather than fought against them.  Confirmation bias lets us only see what we expect to see, frequency illusion allows us to feel like we're discovering something novel about the world, the framing effect makes us feel like our in-group thinking is right so long as all new information is framed to fit, the illusory truth effect describes why we'll begin to believe anything so long as we see/hear it enough times, declinism encourages us to see things as getting worse despite all evidence to the contrary.  And cognitive dissonance ensures we'll stop seeking out contradictory information because it makes us feel weird/bad.

Now go on to Facebook or Twitter or Instagram or whatever and realize that the algorithms deciding what you see are exploiting these cognitive biases to drive ad revenue.  Playing to these biases gets you to stay longer, come back more frequently, and engage more often; which means they get to show you more ads and make more money.  Truth be damned.

If you get fired up about the stupid thing Trump did today and start reading about it and posting about it then Facebook will make sure to show you more and more things like that whether they're based in reality or not.

If you "know" refugee immigrants are destroying the country and make sure everyone on Facebook knows, then guess what "news" articles are going to show up in your feed.  It will be articles about immigrants destroying the country regardless of veracity and you won't even question the validity before frothing at the mouth about it because your cognitive biases are firing on all cylinders.

Let's try an example.

Find me the quote where Trump says he'd like to put all Muslims in the United States into a registration database.  Many people are sure he said it, but I couldn't find it.  The Washington Post (certainly not a pro-Trump publication) did the best they could to nail this down.  Yes, he talked out the side of his mouth a bit and let people draw their own conclusions, but he never actually said, "I want to put them in a database," or anything comparable.  Also, yes, it would have been easy enough for him to denounce the idea entirely and he should have done so.  But the discussion isn't about what he didn't denounce, it's about what he said.  And he didn't say it.

If your reaction to reading the above is, "I didn't know Kyle was a Trump supporter" then you've both proved what I'm talking about while completely missing the point yourself.  I'm not.  You've jumped from facts to interpretation.  Pointing out that something did or did not happen does not make you for or against that thing.  Back up a few paragraphs and try again.

I don't know what the solution is as a society.

We need to learn to take a breath and step away for a while before responding to things that make us emotional.  We need to reward news organizations that don't focus their reporting on making us emotional.  We need to learn to critically evaluate what we're reading and hearing before responding.  We need to accept that we will disagree with each other on topics we feel are really important.  We need to understand that the person we disagree with is still a person.  The other person may seem smug, arrogant, condescending, and infuriating, but we not only get nowhere by responding in kind we can also galvanize the "other side" in their position (see Backfire Effect).

Possibly the most important thing we all can do is be willing to accept the possibility (no matter how remote it may seem) that we may be wrong about something.  When we become dogmatic in our beliefs we guarantee nothing will change.

Rational Dialog? Nah. Religion Edition

December 9, 2015 10:20 am

I've spent the last few months watching the BBC's 1973 mini-series titled, "The World at War" about World War II.  It's a fantastic study of the war.  It doesn't demonize the Axis; it doesn't revere the Allies.  It recognizes that the vast majority of participants were just everyday people trying to live their lives as best they could in unbearable circumstances.  It would be great to have a production of this quality done today with all of the information we know from after the fall of the Soviet Union and the declassification of many documents.

I bring this up because one of the important threads from WWII was the persecution of minority groups and how the general population was led from (often) having some underlying negative feelings towards these groups in general to willingly rounding them up and shipping them off to their slaughter.

With these lessons fresh in my mind some of the rhetoric I'm seeing in the news as it relates to Muslims is concerning.  Do I think the U.S. is on the verge of rounding up Muslims in to concentrations camps like we did U.S. citizens of Japanese descent during WWII?  Not today.  I hope not ever.

Nevertheless, rhetoric that riles up emotions of anger, mistrust, and fear will inevitably escalate to calls-to-action.  Fearful members of the public will lash out in their own simple-minded ways.  Activities like these people attempting to intimidate Muslims by standing outside their mosque with firearms and following around people who come and go will increase.  Without some calming influence I fear it's only a matter of time before one of these people murders a Muslim and believes they are "protecting America."

I am heartened, however, by the counter-protesters who are calling out this dangerous activity.  So long as counter-protesters keep showing up and are willing to defend those targeted by anger then I believe we can avoid national disgrace--and unmitigated bloodshed.

Last year, as part of obtaining a graduate certificate in national security affairs, I took a graduate course on the history of terrorism and counter-terrorism.  One thing Americans seem to be playing directly in to is one of the recruiting tactics used by Islam-based terrorist organizations.  The recruiting message is that the West is at war with Islam and that God (Allah) is calling them to fight.  Anything we do as a country and as a people that provides evidence that this is true amplifies their message.

We need to be the calming influence that prevents these events from spiraling out of control.  We need to show that we understand the difference between religion and violence that uses religion as an excuse.

Terrorism is a parasite that, throughout history, has infected one ideology after another.  The current ideology that it infects is extremist Islam.  It will eventually move on to find another host.  When it does, how are we going to view ourselves and how we handled it?

Rational Dialog? Nah. Guns Edition

9:25 am

It seems that about 40% of the country is convinced that the best possible response to gun violence is for more untrained people to carry around firearms on a regular basis.  Another 40% of the country wants "stronger gun control laws" but what that means depends on who you ask.  And probably about 20% of the country either isn't sure what the best response is or doesn't care.

I don't claim to know what the appropriate response is, but I have some relevant observations.

I've known about the ban on using federal research money to study gun violence for a long time.  It's always been stupid.  If we want to make policy decisions based on anything but emotion then we need data.  Banning federal research money from being used to study one of today's most prominent policy debates it's absurd.  This is something everyone should support.  If you think more people having guns will reduce gun deaths then the data gathered in legitimate research should support you.  Maybe it's true, maybe it's not, currently we have very little data from which to draw any conclusions.

One accusation from we-need-more-guns advocates is that anyone who wants to modify the process of obtaining firearms is a "Constitution shredder" as if the Constitution is a holy document handed down by God himself.  Here's a clue for that group: if the Constitution hadn't been "shredded" in the first place there wouldn't be a 2nd Amendment to worship.  If the Constitution hadn't been "shredded" slavery would still be legal and women wouldn't be allowed to vote.

The Constitution is what "the people" want it to be.  Personally, I'm surprised that given the absolute refusal from the we-need-more-guns groups to enter into rational dialog on how to reduce gun deaths there isn't more call for simply repealing the 2nd Amendment and ending the "Constitution shredder" argument entirely.

The discussion should be focused on concepts like:

  • What does society gain by allowing easy access to firearms?
  • What does society lose by allowing easy access to firearms?
  • Is that trade-off worth it?
    • Other countries seem to get along just fine without widespread gun ownership.
  • Why does the U.S. seem to uniquely, among industrialized nations, have this problem of gun violence?
  • What might be reasonable restrictions on firearm access?
    • Many, maybe even most or all, Constitutional rights are tempered with reasonable restrictions for the public good.  Saying no restrictions should be applied just makes you look ignorant.
  • Does requiring secure storage of firearms help reduce deaths?
  • Should firearm owners undergo mental health assessments?
  • How about anger management classes?
  • Should safe-handling courses be required for firearm ownership?
  • Would any of these changes substantively alter what society loses by allowing easy access to firearms?
    • Does it change whether the trade-off is worth it?

Is anyone with a loud mouth actually trying to discuss and consider these questions?  Or has the public dialog been entirely reduced to "guns are the problem" -- "Nuh-uh, guns are the solution!"?

Scott Adams, Donald Trump, What is Real?

September 9, 2015 11:19 am

Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, has been writing a series of articles discussing Donald Trump and his presidential campaign.  Scott Adams is, so far, the only person I've seen who can build a coherent argument about who Donald Trump is, what he's trying to do, and why it's working.  That makes me pay attention.

He started with his post on August 13 titled "Clown Genius."  You should go read it and if Adams' hypothesis intrigues you then keep looking through his blog posts after that date, he writes a lot about Trump and gives really interesting examples and details of what's happening and why it's working.

His most important point thus far, I think, is understanding that Trump is, first and foremost, a businessman.  He literally wrote the book on negotiation.  Anything he says is part of a negotiation.  We find this strange in U.S. politics because negotiation in politics has been dead for 20 years or so.  "Compromise" has become a career killer.  But it's necessary to be successful in business.

So, Adams says, when Trump presents some extreme position he's just using it to anchor the negotiation and then he can move to the middle as he sees fit and compromise; just like any negotiation.  You never open with what you actually expect to get--that would simply guarantee that you don't get it.  Politicians act this way, but they seem to have forgotten the part where you then negotiate to something more reasonable.

Adams believes Trump will easily reposition himself as necessary and that he'll do it in a way that is immune from people calling him a "flip-flopper."  That is, he will task underlings with studying the topics and putting together proposals that outline costs, likelihood of success, etc--standard business practice; then when he picks a more moderate position it will be based on analysis of data and facts which is totally reasonable--not flip-flopping.

The overall concept that Adams discusses is the "Master Wizard" hypothesis (so you'll see that term in his writing).  That is, people like Trump have studied and learned the art of getting what they want.  Call it persuasion or manipulation or whatever but the result is the same.  They get people to agree with them and then give them what they want.  He suggests another  Master Wizard you might recognize: Steve Jobs.  By all objective accounts he was a jerk with no technical skill.  Yet he was absurdly successful running a computer company.  He got people to do things for him, no question about it.

Here's one example Adams calls out: Trump was getting a lot of press recently for calling Ben Carson a "nice guy."  It's an interesting phrase to use and he carefully ends his statement with it so it's left hanging.  What do many people mentally fill in when you drop the phrase "nice guy(s)" and then leave it hanging?  "Finish last."  Adams argues that Trump fired this "linguistic bullet" to end Carson's campaign.  In his opinion, millions of people now believe Carson has no chance of winning because he's too nice, but they don't realize why they think that.  That is how wizards operate.

The thing that's scary to me is that the more I read Adams' thoughts on the subject the more is seems like Trump isn't necessarily a bad candidate.  Someone who actually negotiates would be good for the country, we need to bring compromise back in to politics.  But then another part of my brain just says, "Buuuut....he's Donald Trump....seriously?"

Adams believes Trump will win the Republican nomination and then win the general election.  I don't know if that will happen, but Adams has convinced me that I should definitely pay more attention to the details of how Trump is operating and that there is more there than meets the eye.

Decisions are made by those who show up

June 16, 2015 10:30 am

The article "Inside Obama's Stealth Startup" was published yesterday over at fastcompany.com.  It discusses the U.S. Digital Service as well as 18F and the effort to bring government tech into the 21st century.  When these stories post I oftentimes take a look at the comment threads on common tech watering holes like Slashdot and HackerNews.  Generally speaking, Slashdot comment threads are rather cynical while HackerNews tends to be more optimistic, but overall it provides some kind of view into how the greater tech world is responding.  So I was surprised at the amount of cynicism expressed in the comments on HackerNews on this article.

Now, I tend to be fairly cynical, the only negative remark on my annual performance appraisals has always been that I should try to be less cynical.  (Personally, I think my cynicism has helped make our team successful, but I digress...) While I may be somewhat cynical, I'm also on the inside of government work.  I know my team members and their skills.  I know the mission space my software is used in.  And I know my background and motivations.

I understand feeling that nothing in government could really be improved so this whole thing must be nothing more than a PR campaign.  It's not.  This is possibly the first genuine attempt at meaningfully improving government tech services ever.  And there are more people pushing for it than just those in the U.S.D.S. or 18F.

I'm reminded of a quote from The West Wing: "Decisions are made by those who show up."

The government isn't just another corporation out to make a profit.  It is the thing which makes our country more than some lines on a map.  If it's not working the way you want it to then you have two choices: whine and complain on the Internet about how broken it is or show up and do something about it.

torbakhopper via Flickr - Creative Commons Licensed
torbakhopper via Flickr - Creative Commons Licensed

The government is likely to continue to exist for some time to come*.  If we're not trying to make it better then it's not going to get better.  If you know me well you know I am not Mr. Patriotic, and in fact I find patriotism dangerous as it is often used to stifle dissent.  This isn't about being patriotic or that somehow the U.S. is better than other countries.  This is about the U.S. government being our government.  And it was created upon the idea that the citizens should have some say in how their government operates.

For years technology in government has fallen behind due to thousands of qualified techies deciding they would rather chase piles of money by selling ads and shiny, metal gadgets than trying to make the government better.  And I get that it's not just about the money. Fighting bureaucracy is hard and exhausting.

But if we don't fight it then it's only going to get worse.  And we can change it.  I have changed my small corner of it.

When I started in my job 6 years ago the source code for this group was stored in an ancient deployment of SVN, the applications were built on homegrown J2EE frameworks with no documentation, missing source code, years behind industry best practices, and with release cycles measured in months.  The code was like spaghetti, it barely functioned, and the intended users hated it.  They disliked it so much that they continued throwing their data into Excel to avoid using the custom software which was supposed to be more useful than Excel.  There was no reason for it but culture and lack of energy to fight for change.

When I joined, the existing software group had disbanded.  I still haven't gotten a full story about what happened, but on my first day on the job the "team" consisted of myself, a database administrator, and a team manager.  Seeing the catastrophe of code that was in front of me I pushed on the manager to let me build a prototype using a modern framework (what did we have to lose, after all?).  It was a smash success and that prototype grew to become one of our core applications.

Now, with the help of willing managers and with our tiny team of software developers (just me, then 2, then 4, now ~7) we've made massive changes.  We use Git for our version control, we build our applications on popular open-source frameworks and libraries, we follow industry best practices as much as possible, our release cycles are measured in weeks and sometimes days.  Our users love the software and constantly ask for more advanced tools.  Our management estimates our technology environment to be at least a year ahead of any other organization in our mission space, we have saved the government millions of dollars, and we have saved lives.

Fighting the bureaucracy is hard.  Some days you think it would just be easier to give in.  It would be easier to give in.  But then nothing gets better.

We have enough work to keep a team twice our size busy but we can't find qualified people to fill the positions.  If the qualified people choose money over service then government technology will continue to suffer.

Our government is what we make of it and the decisions are made by those who show up.

So show up.